United Russia sweeps to victory

United Russia (Единая Россия), the party which has backed Putin, and on whose ticket Putin ran for Parliament, swept to a 64% victory in the Duma elections yesterday, which means - given the rules, 70% of the seats. The Communists - ironically the only genuine dissident party - came a distant second with around 11.6%. Only two other parties managed to clear the 7% threshold: the Liberal Democratic party (which, sort of like the Democratic Republic of Korea, is neither) got 8.2%, and A Just Russia, which also supports Putin, barely cleared the barrier.

What's going to happen with Putin himself?

The man is a player, planning several moves ahead. He has several options. If I had to guess, I'd look for him to become Prime Minister, and then for Zubkov, his mentor and loyal friend, to run for President. And then, sometime next summer or fall, Zubkov - who's elderly - to declare the burdens of office too much for him and to step down, opening the way for an election which Putin can legally enter. In my opinion, if he wanted to change the Constitution, it would have already been changed; he's got the mandate to do it, no worries - it's only his reluctance to be so obvious about staying in power that has stopped him.

Putin has called for the 4 years of a presidential term to be increased to 6. If that passes, then even with term limits, he could stay in power another dozen years.

Is that certain to happen? Of course not. This is Russia, and little is certain. But one thing is: that Vladimir Putin isn't going anywhere in a hurry.