Are we worried yet?

That's what Chris Mooney is asking. Here's why he thinks we should be - among other reasons:

* After not having once since Andrew in 1992, we are now expected to see two Category 5 Atlantic basin hurricane landfalls in the space of 2 weeks.
* Hurricane Felix reached Category 5 on September 2, just 13 days after Hurricane Dean reached it on August 20.
* Both hurricanes are stronger than anything seen in the Pacific this year, even though Pacific typhoons are generally more frequent and powerful than Atlantic hurricanes.
* 11 am ET, Sunday Sept 2: Felix was at 90 knot maximum sustained winds. By 8 pm ET, Sunday Sept 2, maximum sustained winds were 145 knots, for an increase of 55 knots in 9 hours.

The staggering facts also continue when it comes to the Atlantic in general:

* There have now been 8 Category 5 hurricanes in the past 5 years (Isabel, Ivan, Emily, Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Dean, Felix)
* There have been two Category 5s this year; only three other seasons have had more than one (1960, 1961, 2005). (Thanks, Llewelly.)
* There have been 8 Category 5 hurricanes so far in the 2000s; no other decade has had so many. The closest runner up is the 1960s with 6 (Donna, Ethel, Carla, Hattie, Beulah, Camille).
* For the 2007 Atlantic Season, all hurricanes so far have been Category 5 hurricanes.

Are we worried yet?

Katrina - Two Years On

It's the second anniversary of Katrina - and I'd like to recommend that you head over to The Intersection, Chris Mooney's (author of Storm World) home blog and read a couple of posts, one by co-blogger Sheril Kirshenbaum called ...but We ALL Knew Katrina Was Coming!, which is about

Professor Joe Kelley [who] is a nationally renowned marine geologist whose scientific expertise on the Louisiana coastline has long been sought by private and government organizations. Surely he knew what he was talking about, not to mention he even used to be a professor at the University of New Orleans. So evidently, there was something to all this coastal geology.

In 1984, Joe wrote 'Living With the Louisiana Shore' predicting much of what has come to pass. Obviously, for more reasons than Orwell, we should have paid better attention to what we were warned about that year. The science and history of hurricanes in Louisiana sounded terrifying and it was obvious to me - and everyone in the room - that New Orleans didn't stand a chance.

Sheril makes it clear that this is much older than the current administration... and then you can read the four-part post by Chris himself which is probably the best reading on the topic this week, a series that pulls no punches:

Hurricane Katrina Lessons, Part I: Learning to Live With Scientific Uncertainty
Hurricane Katrina Lessons, Part II: It's Bigger Than New Orleans
Hurricane Katrina Lessons, Part III: Why Aren't We Studying Changing Risks?
Hurricane Katrina Lessons, Part IV: It's the President, Stupid

Bora interviews Edwards

John Edwards isn't my candidate, though if Dennis Kucinich drops out I'll probably support Edward through the primaries. Nonetheless, I like him, a lot. Bora at A Blog Around the Clock got an interview with Edwards on science. Check it out.

Going, going, gonu

Check out Chris Mooney's post on Gonu - a tropical cyclone with hurricane- force winds, and major hurricane- force winds at that, (not a hurricane because of where it is) setting records all over the Arabian Sea, and not the good kind, either. As Chris says, "there is a lot of damage that could be done in the area, which is likely to be highly unprepared for such a powerful storm."

You can't make this stuff up

Senator James Inhofe, discussing the latest report on Global Warming, actually said,
"What would happen to the Weather Channel's ratings if all the sudden people weren't scared anymore?"

Of course, it was on Fox. Where else?

(see the clip here)

Say, what???

I am astounded. I think I can't be anymore, but then it happens. Rightwingers say something so stunningly, mindblowingly bizarre...

I saw Happy Feet. I can assure you that global warming isn't mentioned. Factory fishing is - oh, yes - but global warming? Not even a whisper. So where's this "animated version of An Inconvenent Truth"?

But that's not the real kicker. It's the idiots who assert that Mumbles is ... gay. Yes. Or at least standing in for gay.

"There's a whole flock of penguins who are basically, well, gay." "When Mumbles tells his father 'Accept me for who I am, I can't change' that's going to go right over the heads of kids. But we know what he is."

It'll probably go over the kids' heads because Mumbles is in love with a girl penguin. And marries her and has a kid. And all the penguins are obsessed with finding their opposite-sex mate and having kids. And as for that "whole flock" bit - you know, they all reject him; they aren't all "I can't change who I am", you know.

What this asinine assertion means is that any children's story that features a character who is different and wants to be accepted for who he is ... is gay. Like, Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer, I suppose. Or indeed any story which has the moral "be yourself".

Though Pinocchio is safe, I guess: he does change!

(ps - I should probably mention that I saw this on TDS; Lewis Black was carrying on about it... but though I certainly agree with him, most of my reaction is mine)

Hawaiian National Monument - a different slant

Although I joined Mike at the Questionable Authority's praise for W's creation of a new Marine Reserve in Hawai'i, I have to admit that this Tom Toles cartoon rings equally true:

Hurricanes ... Is Prayer Enough? The Answer is - NO

NOAA (the National Oceanica and Atmospheric Administration) released its prediction for the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season. In short, it's going to be another doozy (thought they don't "expect a repeat of last year" ... "currently"):

NOAA’s 2006 Atlantic hurricane season outlook indicates an 80% chance of an above-normal hurricane season, a 15% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 5% chance of a below-normal season. This outlook is produced by scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC), National Hurricane Center (NHC), and Hurricane Research Division (HRD). See NOAA’s definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons.

The outlook calls for a very active 2006 season, with 13-16 named storms, 8-10 hurricanes, and 4-6 major hurricanes. The likely range of the ACE index is 135%-205% of the median. This prediction indicates a continuation of above-normal activity that began in 1995. However, we do not currently expect a repeat of last year’s record season.

The predicted 2006 activity strongly reflects an expected continuation of conditions associated with the multi-decadal signal, which has favored above-normal Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995. These conditions include considerably warmer than normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs), lower wind shear, reduced sea level pressure, and a more conducive structure of the African easterly jet. An updated Atlantic hurricane outlook will be issued in early August, which begins the peak months (August-October) of the hurricane season.

Take a look at NOAA's News Online announcement for more details.

And hope that FEMA has a better plan than "first of all, pray there's no hurricanes". (Yeah, pray that God suspends the laws of nature for us this year.)